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Introduction:
This article reveals how the global markets for capacitors reacted to the event in Tohoku region of Japan, with panic buying impacting aluminum, ceramic and film dielectric capacitors as customers scrambled to shore up their inventories. By May however, the panic dissipated and lead times largely returned to pre-quake levels.
May 2011 Lead Time Update:
During the month of May 2011, lead times for passive electronic components, otherwise known as the time it takes in weeks for a component to leave the factory and reach the customer, decreased and returned to relatively normal levels after panic buying caused a market spike in April as a result of the earthquake, tsunami and radiation leak in the Tohoku region of Japan. Lead times increased in April 2011 for capacitors (all parts combined) to an average of 21.79 weeks (a month-to-month increase of 16.3%); but then relaxed downward to 19.34 weeks (a month-to-month decrease of 11.24%) by the end of May.
Figure 1.1- Lead-Times for Capacitors: March 2010 to May 2011
Source: Paumanok Publications, Inc. All Rights Reserved –Lead times In Weeks
Changes in Lead Times by Capacitor Dielectric: May 2011
The following chart illustrates the changes in global lead times for capacitors by dielectric by month from March 2010 to May 2011. The reader will note how plastic film capacitors, aluminum electrolytic capacitors and ceramic capacitors each experienced a spike in lead times for the month of April, followed by a relaxation of lead times in May. This, as we have noted, was the impact of the March event in Japan upon the global capacitor supply chain. Tantalum capacitors showed no signs of a spike as none of the tantalum supply chain was affected by the Japan quake. However, for each of the other dielectrics, the Japan quake caused damage to both materials processing facilities and component manufacturing pants in the Tohoku region, with ceramic dielectric materials, aluminum foils, electrolytic fluids and ethylene plastic precursors most dramatically impacted.
Figure 1.2: 30-Day Average Lead-Time in Weeks For Capacitors By Dielectric: March 2010-May 2011
Source: Paumanok Publications, Inc. All Rights Reserved –Lead times In Weeks
Tantalum Capacitors: May Lead Times: 2011
Lead times for tantalum capacitors continued to return to normal levels and were not affected by the Japan events. Lead times for May 2011 declined by 11.8% on average in May 2011, compared to the prior month. Lead times for all types of tantalum chip capacitors regardless of cathode type (i.e. low ESR polymer versus standard manganese cathode) and configuration (or cathode type) and case size declined. Average lead time in weeks for tantalum chip capacitors was at 15.7 weeks on May 25, compared to 17.8 weeks on April 25th 2011 (one month prior). The largest monthly declines in lead times in May 2011 were for the molded chip B case, the molded chip D case, the molded chip E/X case, and the polymer type, low ESR B case. The primary end-markets for tantalum capacitors are computers, wireless handsets, video camcorders, digital cameras, automotive subassemblies and defense electronics.
Figure 1.3: 30-Day Average Lead-Time in Weeks for Tantalum Chip Capacitors by Type and Case Size: March 2010-May 2011
Source: Paumanok Publications, Inc. All Rights Reserved –Lead times In Weeks
DC Film Capacitors: May 2011 Lead Time Update
Plastic film dielectric capacitors remained the most difficult type of board mounted capacitor to obtain in May 2011. Materials shortages and increased unit demand continued the stretch in lead times for plastic film capacitors. There is a market vacuum in the metallized PET market space left by the exit of Mitsubishi Polyester Film GmbH, and this was causing lead time extensions in the market before the Japan quake, while unit demand for the finished capacitors, especially for large diameter snubber capacitors used for the protection of IGBT semiconductors had increased to support demand from the power transmission and distribution segment of the market, which continued to be positively impacted by global economic stimulus packages and “smart grid” implementation. On top of this was the affect the Japan quake in March had on an ethylene processing facility in the Tohoku region.
Lead times for DC film capacitors decreased by only 1.7% in May 2011, after a 23% increase in April (due to Japan quake in late March). Global lead times for DC film capacitors remain at an elevated level of 29.25 weeks at the end of May. As we have noted, snubber capacitors remain the most difficult product to get, averaging about 40 weeks. The primary end-markets for DC film capacitors are power supplies, lighting ballasts and other line voltage related and specialty electronic equipment.
Figure 1.4: 30-Day Average Lead-Time in Weeks for DC Film Capacitors by Type: March 2010 to May 2011
Source: Paumanok Publications, Inc. All Rights Reserved –Lead times In Weeks
Aluminum Capacitors: May Lead Times: 2011
Lead times for aluminum electrolytic capacitors, decreased in May 2011, after a substantial increase in April, which was in direct response to the impact the Japan quake had on the materials supply chain for aluminum electrolytic capacitors. In fact, lead times for aluminum electrolytic capacitors decreased by 12.8% in May after a 29.7% decrease in April. Impact on an aluminum foil processing plant; as well as the impact on an electrolytic fluid production plant; as well as the impact on three key aluminum electrolytic capacitor production factories caused panic in the capacitor market- especially for snap-in type aluminum capacitors. Aluminum electrolytic capacitor lead times increased from 18.06 weeks in April 2011 to 23.43 weeks in April, but then relaxed back down to 20.43 weeks in May. Aluminum capacitor applications in electronics include TV sets, stereos, computers, power supplies, line voltage equipment and a variety of specialty end-use markets. In the power electronic side of the equation, aluminum capacitors are critical parts of power transmission and distribution equation and are critical components for use in power inverters. They are also critical components for motor start applications.
Figure 1.5: 30-Day Average Lead-Time in Weeks for Aluminum Electrolytic Capacitors by Type: March 2010- May 2011
Source: Paumanok Publications, Inc. All Rights Reserved –Lead times In Weeks
Ceramic Capacitors: May Lead Times: 2011
Lead times for ceramic capacitors decreased in May 2011 by 17.9% after jumping up by a whopping 32% in April following the panic buying that occurred in the market in response to the earthquake in Japan. We note that MLCC of all case sizes and electrode types eased up May 2011 to 20.43 weeks, after spiking to 23.43 weeks in April 2011, from the March level of 18.06 weeks. Interestingly enough, the one product line- disc ceramic capacitors, which are used in specialty ceramic capacitor- high voltage power applications reveals activity in the power markets that is moving counterintuitive to the general mass markets in consumer electronics. Ceramic chip capacitors are consumed in most major electronics products produced worldwide, but the three major market drivers include wireless handsets, computers and TV sets. The Japan quake had an impact on the ceramic dielectric materials consumed in the production of MLCC, including the titanium dioxide materials and the barium compounds used in the production of barium titanate, which is the primary ceramic material consumed in the production of MLCC worldwide.
Figure 1.5: 30-Day Average Lead-Time in Weeks for Ceramic Capacitors by Type: March 2010- May 2011
Source: Paumanok Publications, Inc. All Rights Reserved –Lead times In Weeks
Summary and Conclusions:
After a brief panic buying spree that impacted the market in April 2011- causing lead times to spike by 30% on average; the market relaxed quickly and regained its composure by May 2011. Products moving counterintuitive to this trend include the snubber film capacitors and the high voltage ceramic capacitors, both of which are consumed in specialty circuits in power transmission and distribution environments suggesting that global spending form economic stimulus packages initiated in 2009 is still having a positive impact on market demand for specialty capacitors.
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